The week in 60 seconds
What happened, and nothing elseThe market started paying for good news again, in one aisle of the store.
- NVIDIA reported $96.2 billion of revenue and guided the current quarter to $108 billion; the market took the guidance over a hot inflation print.
- Okta, Salesforce and Veeva all reported on August 26 and all raised full year guidance; all three re-rated in the same session.
- Core inflation ran at 3.3 percent in the year to July, hotter than the 3.2 percent expected, and technology rose anyway.
- Brent crude fell 6.33 percent to its August 26 settlement as Iran and Oman discussed a shared Hormuz shipping route; Energy finished last at negative 2.29 percent.
- United States and Canada trade talks collapsed, tariffs on Canadian steel stayed at 50 percent, and domestic steel names recovered.
You have the headline. The brief adds the market setup behind it, a line on each of the five, and what matters next. Continue to the 5-minute brief →
The 5-minute brief
~5 minMarket read
Measured from the August 20 close through Thursday, August 27, the S&P 500 ETF rose 1.11 percent and the equal weight version of the same index rose 0.53 percent, ending a four week losing run. Technology led at 3.01 percent and Energy finished last at negative 2.29 percent, an exact reversal of the prior week. The turn had two causes and a date. On August 26 the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that core inflation ran at 3.3 percent in the year to July, a tenth hotter than economists expected, and the same afternoon NVIDIA reported $96.2 billion of quarterly revenue and guided the current quarter to $108 billion. On August 27 the market chose the guidance over the inflation print. Underneath that, Okta, Salesforce and Veeva all reported after the close on August 26 and all three raised their full year outlooks, one week after Walmart raised its outlook and fell 9.15 percent. On the other side of the ledger, Brent crude fell 6.33 percent to its August 26 settlement of $87.84 as Iran and Oman discussed a shared shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, and the volatility index fell from 16.01 to 14.51. Futures settle after the equity close, so every commodity figure here is measured to that August 26 settlement rather than to Thursday.
Market Risk Score: 58 / 100 (Elevated).
The risk score grades overall market conditions from 0 (calm) to 100 (high risk). It sets how cautious the week's read is. It is not a signal to buy or sell anything.
The five
- 01OKTA, view score cardOkta, Inc.Guidance raiseWeekly moveup 28.9 percent
It was the largest single session move of any liquid name in the screen, and unlike most large movers this week it came with a number attached rather than a mood.
- 02CRM, view score cardSalesforce, Inc.Backlog acceleration
Of everything that moved this week, this is the one where the reported number and the underlying number differ most, which makes it the most useful thing in the issue to read carefully.
- 03VEEV, view score cardVeeva Systems Inc.Life sciences software
Health Care fell 0.47 percent as a sector this week, so this is a name that moved against its own tape on its own numbers rather than with a wave.
- 04CLF, view score cardCleveland-Cliffs Inc.Furnace investment
This is the only pick in the issue that is not a software company reporting earnings, and it is the one where the catalyst is a signed commitment rather than a quarter.
- 05DG, view score cardDollar General CorporationTraffic growthWeekly moveup 4.4 percent
Four of the five names in this issue rose in the same session on the same reset in appetite for technology.
Weekly move is each stock's movement during the window this issue analyzes (Week of August 20 to August 27, 2026), which closes before the issue publishes. It is not a return earned after publication. How each figure is measured →
What matters next
- Aug 28. The Federal Reserve Chair keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium, expected Friday morning
- Sep 1. Palo Alto Networks reports fiscal fourth quarter results after the close, guided to $3.345 billion to $3.355 billion of revenue
- Sep 1. The ISM manufacturing index for August
You have the briefing.
Full research adds:
- the evidence behind the market read, and what would break it
- the complete case and the bear case on all five
- the next dated event for each name, and what result confirms or ends the thesis
- the primary sources every claim rests on
- the calls this issue is willing to be graded on next week
Full research
~18 minWeek ahead: the full analysis
I expect this rally to stay narrow. Over the coming week I expect the cap weighted S&P 500 to keep beating the equal weight version of the same index, because the bid that turned the market on August 27 came from one company's guidance and reached almost nothing outside technology. On that single session the index rose 0.66 percent while the average stock fell 0.30 percent, and eight of eleven sectors finished the week lower than they started. The calendar does not help the average stock either: Jackson Hole and the August employment report are macro events, and macro events get priced through the index rather than through the median company. I am putting this at 60 percent, and it is deliberately modest. My one week sector calls are running 6 correct and 9 wrong with a negative average edge, and last week's call was not just wrong but wrong by three times its own kill threshold.
What would prove me wrong. The equal weight S&P 500 beats the cap weighted S&P 500 by more than 1.0 percentage point from the August 28 close to the September 4 close, measured as the percentage change in RSP minus the percentage change in SPY. I put the odds of this view holding at 60%.
- Aug 28. The Federal Reserve Chair keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium, expected Friday morning
It is his first as Chair, the theme this year is financial innovation rather than the policy path, and a Chair who has curtailed forward guidance is the least likely to hand the market the clarity it wants - Sep 1. Palo Alto Networks reports fiscal fourth quarter results after the close, guided to $3.345 billion to $3.355 billion of revenue
It is the independent check on whether the August 27 security software move was a sector re-rating or one company's quarter, and it reads directly on the Okta pick in this issue - Sep 1. The ISM manufacturing index for August
The first read on factory activity since tariffs on Canadian steel stayed at 50 percent, and the number that tells you whether the steel pricing story has demand behind it - Sep 4. The August employment report at 8:30 am Eastern
July payrolls fell 23,000 and the prior two months were revised down by 103,000. A second negative print alongside 3.3 percent core inflation is the combination this market has not had to price yet - Sep 8. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on United States steel and other goods take effect
It settles whether the trade escalation that lifted domestic steel this week is a standing condition or a negotiating position, and it is the dated event behind the Cleveland-Cliffs pick
The biggest risk right now. Three of the five picks in this issue re-rated in the same session on the same reset in appetite for software, and they can hand it back together just as fast. Okta rose 28.6 percent, Salesforce 22.6 percent and Veeva 15.2 percent on August 27, all on results published after the close on August 26, all in the session that followed NVIDIA guiding the current quarter to $108 billion. On that day the S&P 500 rose 0.66 percent and the equal weight version fell 0.30 percent, so the buying was concentrated rather than broad. None of the three raised full year revenue guidance by as much as one percent. The move was a change in what the market will pay for software, not a change in what these three companies sold, and the thing that changed it was another company's forecast. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, IGV, closing more than 6 percent below its August 27 close on or before September 11, 2026. I put it at 25% by September 11, 2026.
Last week I said, and I was wrong
That the cost side would keep setting direction, and Energy would keep beating Technology between the August 24 and August 28 closes. The opposite happened, and not narrowly. Measured from the August 24 close to August 27, the technology sector fund rose 4.75 percent while the energy sector fund fell 1.30 percent, a gap of 6.05 percentage points in favour of technology against a stated kill threshold of 2.0 points. The reasoning failed at its root: I argued the Hormuz disruption had no diplomatic path back, and on August 26 Iran and Oman were reported to be discussing a shared shipping route through the strait, with Brent falling 5.49 percent on the week. Four of the five watch list items did resolve as stated, including Marvell reporting $2.739 billion of revenue against a $2.71 billion consensus. The fifth, that the reported cut in tariffs on Canadian steel would be confirmed by either government, did not: the talks collapsed instead. There is a second correction owed here. The ledger had this call recorded as survived. It was auto graded on August 22, two days before its own measurement window opened, on closes that did not exist yet, and it scored a zero against a zero and called that a survival. I found it this week, regraded it by hand as falsified, and logged the defect so the grader cannot do it again. Not close, and on the wrong side. I said I would be wrong if technology beat energy by more than 2.0 points. It beat energy by 6.05 points, three times the threshold, roughly 0.69 sigma past the trigger. That is the least ambiguous way to be wrong, and it is worth more than a near miss would have been: a call that fails by three times its own margin tells you the reasoning was wrong, not the timing.
This week's five
OKTA, view score card · Okta, Inc. · Technology / Identity Security Software
- Move before publication
- +28.9%
- Next date
- Sep 1
Okta reported after the close on August 26 and raised its full year outlook on both revenue and earnings. The stock rose 28.6 percent the next session and closed the week at a 52 week high. The business underneath grew revenue 11 percent. That gap between the reaction and the growth rate is the whole thing worth thinking about here.
The catalyst. On August 26, 2026 Okta reported second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $805 million, up 11 percent, subscription revenue of $793 million, up 12 percent, remaining performance obligation of $4.858 billion, up 17 percent, non-GAAP diluted earnings of $1.05 a share and free cash flow of $227 million. It raised full year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $3.216 billion to $3.226 billion and non-GAAP earnings to $3.90 to $3.94 a share. The stock rose 28.6 percent on August 27. Okta, Inc., August 26, 2026
Why it made the five. It was the largest single session move of any liquid name in the screen, and unlike most large movers this week it came with a number attached rather than a mood. Revenue was $805 million against a $795 million consensus, earnings were $1.05 a share against $0.97 expected, and the company lifted full year revenue to a range of $3.216 billion to $3.226 billion from $3.19 billion to $3.21 billion and full year earnings to $3.90 to $3.94 from $3.79 to $3.87. Remaining performance obligation, the contracted work not yet delivered, grew 17 percent to $4.858 billion, faster than revenue, which is the part of an identity software company that leads rather than lags.
What to watch next. Sep 1: Palo Alto Networks reports its fiscal fourth quarter after the close, the first independent read on whether security budgets are actually accelerating or whether one company had a good quarter Confirms the thesis: Palo Alto delivering revenue at or above its own $3.345 billion guidance floor with next generation security annual recurring revenue growing near the 59 to 60 percent it guided Breaks it: A miss or a soft forward guide from Palo Alto, which would suggest the August 27 re-rating priced a sector move off a single company's quarter
The case against it. The stock has risen 174.8 percent from its April 10 low and 106.7 percent this year, and it closed on August 27 at the highest price in 52 weeks, on the day it gapped 28.6 percent. At $172.91 against full year earnings guidance of $3.90 to $3.94, it trades at roughly 44 times the company's own forecast, for a business growing revenue 11 percent. The raise itself was about $26 million on a $3.2 billion year, which is under one percent. A 28 percent move on a sub one percent raise is the market repricing the story rather than the numbers, and stories reprice in both directions. The 17 percent backlog growth is real, but it is the reason to watch the name, not proof that 44 times is the right price for it.
Weekly move (before publication): +28.9%
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CRM, view score card · Salesforce, Inc. · Technology / Enterprise Software
- Friday Five Score
- 85 / 100
- Actionability
- Fresh Breakout
- Next date
- Sep 30
Salesforce reported on August 26 and raised full year revenue guidance to a range of $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion. The stock rose 22.6 percent the next session, its best day in years, and is still roughly flat for 2026. The headline earnings number needs unpacking before any of that means much.
The catalyst. On August 26, 2026 Salesforce reported second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $11.3 billion, up 11 percent, current remaining performance obligation of $33.5 billion, up 14 percent year over year and in constant currency, GAAP operating margin of 20.5 percent and non-GAAP operating margin of 34.1 percent, and non-GAAP diluted earnings of $5.90 a share, of which the filing attributes $2.53 to gains on strategic investments. It raised full year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion. Agentforce annual recurring revenue passed $1.5 billion, up over 240 percent. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, August 26, 2026
Why it made the five. Of everything that moved this week, this is the one where the reported number and the underlying number differ most, which makes it the most useful thing in the issue to read carefully. Non-GAAP earnings were $5.90 a share, up 103 percent, and the company's own filing footnote states that gains on strategic investments added $2.53 of that. Take those out and the operating figure is roughly $3.37, which is almost exactly the $3.42 to $3.44 the company guided for the current quarter. The genuine improvement is elsewhere: current remaining performance obligation, the contracted work due within a year, reached $33.5 billion and grew 14 percent, and that growth rate accelerated rather than slowed.
What to watch next. Sep 30: The end of the fiscal third quarter, by which the company expects the Contentful and Fin acquisitions to have closed. Both are already inside guidance Confirms the thesis: Both deals closing in the quarter as stated, so the raised guidance rests on assets the company actually owns Breaks it: Either deal slipping past the quarter, which would leave $200 million of the $200 million raise resting on transactions that have not happened
The case against it. The full year revenue raise was $200 million on a $46 billion year, and the company's own breakdown says $200 million of it comes from the pending Contentful and Fin acquisitions and $100 million from organic growth, offset by a $100 million currency headwind. So the organic raise is about two tenths of one percent. Total remaining performance obligation grew 11 percent while revenue grew 11 percent, so the longer dated book is not accelerating the way the one year book is. Nine insider transaction reports were filed on August 24, two days before the release, and a proposed sale notice followed on August 27. And the $2.53 of investment gains that flattered this quarter can reverse in the next one, because the company says plainly that it cannot forecast them.
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VEEV, view score card · Veeva Systems Inc. · Health Care / Life Sciences Tools and Services
- Friday Five Score
- 84 / 100
- Actionability
- Extended
- Next date
- Oct 31
Veeva sells the software that pharmaceutical companies run their clinical trials and sales teams on. It reported on August 26, grew revenue 18 percent, and raised its full year outlook. The stock rose 15.2 percent on August 27 and finished the week up 12.61 percent, the only Health Care name in the screen with a business result behind it.
The catalyst. On August 26, 2026 Veeva Systems reported fiscal 2027 second quarter total revenues of $928.0 million, up 18 percent from $789.1 million, subscription revenues of $766.8 million, up 16 percent, non-GAAP operating income of $415.9 million and non-GAAP diluted earnings of $2.35 a share against $1.99 a year earlier. It guided full fiscal 2027 revenue to $3.682 billion to $3.687 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings to about $9.21 a share. The stock rose 15.2 percent on August 27. Veeva Systems Inc., August 26, 2026
Why it made the five. Health Care fell 0.47 percent as a sector this week, so this is a name that moved against its own tape on its own numbers rather than with a wave. Revenue was $928.0 million against $789.1 million a year ago, non-GAAP earnings were $2.35 a share against a $2.22 consensus, and full year revenue guidance went to $3.682 billion to $3.687 billion with non-GAAP earnings of about $9.21. Vault CRM, the product that replaced a competitor's system across the industry, had its best quarter with more than 180 customers live including five of the twenty largest biopharmaceutical companies. That is a slow, contracted migration rather than a sentiment trade.
What to watch next. Oct 31: The close of the fiscal third quarter, the period the company has guided to $932 million to $935 million of revenue and $2.33 to $2.34 of non-GAAP earnings Confirms the thesis: Revenue landing inside that range with more of the twenty largest biopharmaceutical companies live on Vault CRM than the five reported this quarter Breaks it: Revenue at or below the low end, which on a 16 percent subscription growth rate would mean the migration is finishing rather than continuing
The case against it. The stock has risen 78.0 percent in three months and 86.3 percent from its April low, and at $282.13 against about $9.21 of full year earnings it trades near 31 times the company's own forecast. Its customers are pharmaceutical companies, and pharmaceutical research budgets are set annually and cut when drug pricing policy moves against them. The newer products carrying the growth story, Veeva Falcon and the agent tools, have five early adopters and no revenue disclosure yet, so the part of the thesis that justifies the multiple is the part with the least evidence. A proposed sale notice was filed by an insider on August 27, the day after the results.
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CLF, view score card · Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. · Materials / Steel
- Next date
- Sep 8
On August 21 Cleveland-Cliffs announced a $1 billion investment in its Middletown Works plant in Ohio, half of it funded by a rescoped Department of Energy award, with the Vice President on site. The same weekend, United States and Canada trade talks collapsed and the 50 percent tariff on Canadian steel stayed in place. The stock rose 10.15 percent on the week and is still down 13.0 percent this year.
The catalyst. On August 21, 2026 Cleveland-Cliffs announced a $1 billion investment in Middletown Works in Ohio, funded equally by the company and a rescoped $500 million United States Department of Energy award, covering a blast furnace rebuild, material handling infrastructure, artificial intelligence enabled process controls and a cogeneration facility that captures blast furnace gas for on site electricity and steam. The rebuild is planned to complete in the first quarter of 2030, employing more than 1,500 at peak construction and preserving 2,300 jobs. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., August 21, 2026
Why it made the five. This is the only pick in the issue that is not a software company reporting earnings, and it is the one where the catalyst is a signed commitment rather than a quarter. The $500 million Department of Energy share is a government award being rescoped and finalised rather than a press release, and the project covers a blast furnace rebuild, material handling, and a cogeneration plant that captures blast furnace gas to make the site's own electricity and steam. That last part is a cost line, not a growth line, which is the unglamorous kind of change that matters for a steelmaker. The tariff backdrop moved the same way in the same week, which is why the whole domestic steel group rose.
What to watch next. Sep 8: Canada's retaliatory tariffs on United States steel and other goods take effect, the answer to the 50 percent United States tariff that stayed in place when talks collapsed Confirms the thesis: The tariffs taking effect as announced with domestic hot rolled coil prices holding, which keeps the pricing advantage the whole group rallied on Breaks it: Talks restarting and the 25 percent rate returning to the table, which is the exact headline that took 15.94 percent off Steel Dynamics on August 19
The case against it. This company owns Stelco, a Canadian steelmaker it bought in 2024, so the 50 percent tariff that helps its American plants is a tax on part of its own business, and Canada's answering tariffs on United States steel take effect on September 8. The Middletown blast furnace rebuild is not scheduled to finish until the first quarter of 2030, so the spending starts long before the benefit does. The stock is 26.9 percent below its 52 week high and down 7.8 percent over three months, which is what a bounce in a downtrend looks like until it is not. And the company made this announcement by press release without filing a Form 8-K, so it did not treat it as a material event in the regulatory sense.
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DG, view score card · Dollar General Corporation · Consumer Staples / Discount Retail
- Move before publication
- +4.4%
- Next date
- Sep 4
Dollar General reported on the morning of August 27 and raised its full year earnings guidance to a range of $7.80 to $8.00 a share from $7.20 to $7.45. Same store sales grew 3.5 percent with customer traffic up 2.0 percent, the fifth straight quarter of more people walking in. It rose 4.40 percent on the week, the smallest move in this issue and the one with the least to do with artificial intelligence.
The catalyst. On August 27, 2026 Dollar General reported second quarter fiscal 2026 net sales up 5.2 percent to $11.3 billion, same store sales up 3.5 percent on a 2.0 percent rise in customer traffic, gross margin of 32.6 percent against 31.3 percent a year earlier, operating profit up 29.2 percent to $769.2 million and diluted earnings up 33.3 percent to $2.48. It raised full year fiscal 2026 guidance to net sales growth of 4.0 to 4.3 percent, same store sales growth of 2.5 to 2.9 percent and diluted earnings of $7.80 to $8.00, from $7.20 to $7.45. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, August 27, 2026
Why it made the five. Four of the five names in this issue rose in the same session on the same reset in appetite for technology. This one did not. It reported in the morning, on its own numbers, in a sector that finished the week down 0.28 percent, and the reason it is here is that it is the cleanest test of whether the market is paying for operating results or only for a theme. Operating profit grew 29.2 percent to $769.2 million and gross margin improved 127 basis points. Traffic growth matters more than the earnings beat: a discount retailer whose customer count is rising for a fifth consecutive quarter is telling you something about where households are shopping.
What to watch next. Sep 4: The August employment report at 8:30 am Eastern. July payrolls fell by 23,000 and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 103,000 Confirms the thesis: Another weak payroll print, which historically pushes more households toward discount retail and supports the traffic trend the company just reported Breaks it: A strong rebound in hiring and wages, which would take pressure off the trade down that has driven five quarters of traffic growth here
The case against it. The company itself says approximately 81 basis points of that 127 basis point gross margin gain came from tariff refunds after reinvestment, and that it does not expect a material benefit from those refunds in the second half. The full year earnings guidance includes about $0.25 from those refunds. So of a roughly $0.60 raise at the midpoint, about $0.25 is a one off. The stock remains 19.4 percent below its 52 week high and down 8.0 percent this year, and at $125.89 against $7.80 to $8.00 of guided earnings it trades near 16 times, which is not obviously cheap for a retailer whose gains partly depend on trade policy staying where it is.
Weekly move (before publication): +4.4%
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Stock of the week
Salesforce (CRM, view score card)
Stock of the Week is the most instructive name in the issue, not the largest weekly mover.
Salesforce is not the biggest gainer in this issue and it is the one worth reading twice. It reported non-GAAP earnings of $5.90 a share, more than double a year ago, and its own filing discloses that $2.53 of that came from gains on its investment portfolio. Strip those out and the operating figure is about $3.37, which sits almost exactly on the $3.42 to $3.44 the company guided for the current quarter. The number that actually improved is the backlog. Current remaining performance obligation, the contracted work due within the next twelve months, reached $33.5 billion and grew 14%, and that growth rate went up rather than down. That is the difference between a headline and a business. And after a 22.6% session, the stock is still roughly flat for the year, which tells you how far it had fallen before this week. I am naming it here for the lesson rather than the move. When reported earnings more than double on 11% revenue growth, the explanation is almost never eleven percent revenue growth. It is in a footnote, and in this case the company put it there plainly.
Sector rotation
Into: Technology · Financials · Materials · Communication Services
Out of: Energy · Utilities · Real Estate · Consumer Discretionary
Rotation is money moving between industry groups. It shows where big investors added this week and where they pulled back.